Another Take On Recession Risk And One Bank’s Look At Market “Stress”
If you’re looking for signs that the US economy will steer clear of recession, don’t look at the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasurys: As Bloomberg’s Tracy Alloway noted on Monday, the curve is getting “flat as a pancake,” and that’s not generally a good sign for the economy. Bloomberg was referencing the latest…
“See No Evil”: A Recession Is Coming, But Who Cares?
Last year, the Bureau of Economic Analysis did away with recessionary GDP prints through the magic of “residual seasonality.” The thing about numbers is that they don’t, generally speaking, lie. But statistics sure do. That’s because numbers are just numbers until humans start tinkering with them. Once the human element is introduced, you can throw…
Recession 2016
Recession 2016 More and more evidence of a recession in 2016 seems to be rearing it's ugly head. Bonds are screaming higher which is a tell tale sign that the market is thinking recession. Meanwhile financials are officially in a bear market. I keep watching the implied volatility in the XLF and that tells you…