No, The Fed Probably Won’t Hike On Huge Jobs Beat
Coming into NFP Friday, it kind of felt like stocks were going to go up either way. After all, there was virtually no chance of getting a June jobs number as bad as May’s report, a modestly underwhelming print would keep the Fed on hold thereby forestalling the tightening cycle yet again, and in the…
"So, Maybe July Then?”: Poor Jobs Report Puts Question Mark Over Fed
Bad news is good news. Or not. The market’s reaction to Friday’s NFP report betrays the extent to which investors and traders no longer have any idea how to read the Federal Reserve. There was a time when negative data was a guaranteed boon for risk. The worse the data, the better for stocks. Why?…
Sleepy Monday Markets React To Yellen’s Friday Yellin’ Ahead Of Payrolls
Well, that escalated quickly. Markets are reacting precisely as one would have expected after two solid weeks of hawkish Fedspeak and it’s not entirely clear how everyone feels about things. Maybe it’s just because the holiday limits news flow as well as overseas volume, but there seems to be a palpable sense of caution in…
SPX Expected Move
SPX Expected Move The SPX expected move is telling us exactly what the market is doing - nothing. The weekly options for the SPX is telling us that the market is waiting for the unemployment numbers that will be released Friday morning. Let's review what to expect when the market expects nothing.
SPX Weekly Options
SPX Weekly Options SPX Weekly Options now have 2 weekly options per week. Yes I know it's confusing. There is now a mid week SPX expiration to go along with the end of week expiration. They did this to match up the SPX with the volatility futures. Let's take a look at the probabilities in…