Banks Fall As Investors Fear A Flattening Curve
Stocks Rally Modestly The stock market rallied slightly on Friday as the S&P 500 was up 0.11% inching closer to the record high set in January. The Dow outperformed the Russell 2000 as the trade war fears faded. The Dow was up 0.38% and the Russell 2000 was down 0.19%. The Dow was helped by…
2 Year/10 Year Treasury Curve Flattens To Just 26 Basis Points
Stocks Rebound On Thursday It seems like economic fundamentals and earnings are in a heavy weight battle with the trade skirmishes to determine the direction of the stock market. It rallies when the skirmishes aren’t in the news and declines when new announcements are made. That’s the best explanation I can give for why stocks…
CPI In-Line With Expectations: Great News For The Bulls
Inflation Increases Because Of Easy Comparisons After the PPI-FD report beat estimates, some bulls were worried that the June CPI report would also beat estimates. The fact that it was mostly in line with estimates is a big win for the bulls because it means the Fed won’t raise rates a 5th time this year.…
10% Tariffs Push Stocks Lower
Tariffs Push Stocks Lower The stock market sold off sharply on Wednesday because of President Trump’s proposal of a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports. It’s important to recognize that this equates to a $20 billion tariff, not $200 billion. Sometimes articles falsely claim the tariff is the amount of goods being…
Small Business Are Extremely Optimistic
Small Businesses Ramping Small businesses continue to do spectacularly well reinforcing the strength in the labor market and the overall economy. I wouldn’t necessarily claim this index is a leading indicator, but those who claimed strong small business confidence was a signal the economy was near the end of the cycle have been wrong since…
Trump Taxes $200 Billion Worth Of Chinese Goods
March & June High Broken On Tuesday the stock market continued its rally as it looked like the tariffs were losing their ability to affect the market. However, after the close, President Trump issued another round of tariffs on China which may end this recent rally. I will review that later in this post. The…
86% of S&P 500 Firms Beat EPS Estimates
Global Earnings Estimates Looks Strong The only thing that matters to stocks is earnings growth. That’s the bottom line when it comes to analyzing geopolitical issues or trade skirmishes. With amazing earnings coming out as the tariffs are implemented, the market is getting less worried about the possibility of a demise in growth. Some arguments…
Stocks Move Within Striking Distance Of The January Record High
Financial Stocks Power The Market Higher The stock market went up big on Monday as it continues its recent run. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were both up 0.88%. The biggest trend on the day was the outperformance of the Dow compared to the Russell 2000. This shows us the trade war jitters have…
3.5% Annualized Gains Expected After The Curve Inverts
Manufacturing Holding Up The Economy? The manufacturing economy is running hot which brings uncertainty into economic forecasts because manufacturing is much more volatile than services. Manufacturing is smaller than services, but a big move can cause it to have a decent sized impact on the economy. I’m worried that weakness in services can be masked…
Stocks Rally As The Dollar Falters
Big Friday Rally The stock market completely ignored President Trump’s $500 billion tariff threat and the fact that the tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods kicked in on Friday. Every action thus far has been small. This was a sell the bluster, buy the action trade. Unless the larger tariffs that have been…