Endless Rally On Stimulus Without Anything Passing
Another Small Cap Rally The stock market is getting close to being overbought again which is amazing because a few weeks ago the market was down 10%. It’s amazing how many days the market can rally on the potential for a stimulus. This reminds us of when the market would rally on trade talks without…
Uninspiring Jobless Claims Report
Not The Best Jobless Claims Report The jobless claims report from the week of October 3rd wasn’t that great probably because many businesses are on their last legs. Independent movie theaters are going bust now. COVID-19 situation is about to get a lot better. But that doesn’t help small businesses that have been hanging on for…
Energy Sector Finds a Flurry of Bullish Option Activity
Unusual Option Activity Report Bullish unusual option activity in the energy sector was flourishing on Thursday. Bullish option activity appeared in the Energy Select Sector SPDR® Fund (NYSEARCA: XLE) many other stocks in the sector. This space is very oversold and might be signaling a strong bounce off support in the coming weeks. What’s Up…
Windshield Wiper Stock Market Could End Soon
Rally Redo Wednesday was a redo of Tuesday’s rally except without the crash at the end of the day. A big difference was that this time tech stocks outperformed. They made up for their underperformance on the day before. This entire crash was based on President Trump tweets. It’s starting to not matter if a…
Fed Pleas For A Fiscal Stimulus
September Fed Minutes Fed’s Minutes from the September meeting were released on Wednesday. These Minutes stated, “Many participants noted that their economic outlook assumed additional fiscal support and that if future fiscal support was significantly smaller or arrived significantly later than they expected, the pace of the recovery could be slower than anticipated.” Fed strongly…
Stocks Crash As Stimulus Hopes Were Dashed Temporarily
Tuesday Rollercoaster The stock market exhibited high volatility on Tuesday afternoon. Let’s set the scene. Stock market was rallying nicely, with strong outperformance by the reopening stocks and banks. There was a burgeoning reflation trade as the TLT (long bond ETF) was falling. TLT almost closed below its 200 day moving average for the first…
25 Percent Decline In Christmas Shopping In Stores Expected
Update On The Consumer Redbook same store sales growth fell from 2.2% to 2.1% in the week of October 3rd. That’s better than the trough of this year and the decline in September, but it’s not an area we want growth to settle at. We want growth to stay in the mid single digits which…
Mega Rally In Small Caps, Banks and Oil
Massive Monday Rally Stocks absolutely exploded on Monday as President Trump was released from the hospital and tweeted in favor of a stimulus. Uncertainty over his health is over as many knew it would be. Odds of a stimulus passing in October probably increased. We won’t know if President Trump getting healthier helps him or…
Second Highest ISM Services PMI Of 2020
Slightly Disappointing Wage Growth Within September’s employment report, hourly wages were up 0.1% from last month which missed estimates for 0.2% growth. Plus, August’s reading as revised down a tick. The exact same was true for yearly growth as hourly wages were up 4.7% instead of 4.8% and August’s reading went down from 4.7% to…
Stocks Still Laser Focused On Stimulus Possibilities
Another Factor Day The stock market has had many factor days this year. A factor day to me is when there is a large dispersion among returns in different factors. You know the drill. Large cap growth stocks have been inversely correlated at times with small cap value. You can see the daily performance spread…