Powell Barely Makes Any Changes - Market Reacts Anyway
Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Powell gave his Jackson Hole speech on Thursday. Not much changed, but the media reported it as a big pivot and the 10 year yield increased. 10 year yield went from about 68 basis points to about 75 basis points because the Fed suggested it would let inflation ramp higher than…
Big Tech Controls The Market - No Other Stocks Count
Insanity Reins Supreme Wednesday was the craziest day in the stock market most of us have ever seen. Salesforce.com’s earnings report caused a tidal wave of buying in everything tech related. Frankly, the action made no sense. This is a bubble. Netflix’s stock rose 11.6% and Roku’s stock rose 11.2% on analyst upgrades. Analysts are…
Is The Consumer OK?
Help Coming From The Government? One of the most discussed topics in economics and investing is how much the elimination of the $600 in weekly unemployment benefits impacted the economy. Recently, Redbook same store sales growth actually improved in the latest reading. It’s now positive. On the other hand, consumer confidence in the first half…
A 5 Percent Correction Always Happens When This Signal Is Triggered
Nothing Can Stop This Market S&P 500 has only been down twice this month. Nothing can stop this bull market besides the Fed which won’t be raising rates anytime soon. A full return to normalcy because of a better COVID-19 treatment or its spread dying off may cause tech stocks to crash. Since tech is…
August Consumer Confidence Falls To A 6 Year Low
6 Year Low In Consumer Confidence It’s clear the decline in jobless benefits caused consumer confidence to fall because COVID-19 cases have been sharply declining this month. Plus, the stock market has been up. It's clear the coming election didn't alter confidence. It may have caused slightly more polarization, but probably didn’t impact the overall…
S&P 500 Fairly Valued Without Big Tech
Stocks Always Go Up This is a great market because no matter what the leadership is on the day, the index almost always ends higher. Last week the momentum tech stocks led the market higher. On Monday, cyclicals did the heavy lifting. S&P 500 rose 1%. It’s still in the range where if it tops…
Hedge Fund VIPs Are Ramping
Small Businesses Are Coming Back We hear a lot about how badly small businesses are doing. Tthat’s because the businesses that are near shutting down or have been forced to shut down get most of the news coverage. For example, it’s not news if a business is doing 10% worse than before the recession, but…
Terrible Breadth - Financials Are Irrelevant
Different Market The stock market was different on Friday. As per usual, the Nasdaq outperformed the Russell 2000 as the tech index was up 0.42% and the small cap index fell 0.76%. However, the rally was mostly in Tesla and Apple. The market’s breadth narrowed considerably. For example, the cloud index fell 0.97%. Amazon, Microsoft,…
Apple and Tesla Are Bubble Stocks
No Rate Hikes For A Long Time In an analysis of the Fed’s decision to delay setting targets and not control the yield curve, it's notable that the Fed doesn’t need to convince people rates will be lower for longer. Fed has now convinced everyone that rates won’t be raised for the next few years. …
Stock Market’s Breadth Stinks - Nasdaq Bubble Almost Over
Most Stocks Selloff In a normal market, you would say Thursday was an extremely unusual day. However, this is the most bizarre market most have ever seen, so it’s consistent with the new normal. Logically, it makes sense stocks fell when the housing market was imploding and the banking system was shaky back in 2008. …