Goldman: 100 Basis Points Equals One Trillion In Losses
On Friday, we got an abysmal NFP print. And that should have sent stocks soaring right out of the gate. As we explained here earlier today, bad economic news has traditionally been good news for equity investors and traders in the upside down environment that has largely characterized the post-crisis world. By the end of…
"So, Maybe July Then?”: Poor Jobs Report Puts Question Mark Over Fed
Bad news is good news. Or not. The market’s reaction to Friday’s NFP report betrays the extent to which investors and traders no longer have any idea how to read the Federal Reserve. There was a time when negative data was a guaranteed boon for risk. The worse the data, the better for stocks. Why?…
Fed Summer Survival Guide
Ok, so it’s Tuesday, which might as well be Monday thanks to the US and the UK being closed yesterday. I don’t mind penning “news-ish” market updates, but as regular readers here are probably aware, I prefer to outline my take on market themes or macro trends that I think matter from a big picture…
Pondering A Slow Growth World: Have We Entered A New Era?
If the leaders of the world’s advanced economies are very concerned about global growth, then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is very, very, very concerned (so that’s three “verys” for Abe versus one “very” for everyone else). To be sure, part of the reason Abe seems to be on the verge of a meltdown when…
What news will be a catalyst for the stock market?
Another critical time for the stock market. At this point one market catalyst can send stocks to new highs or to new lows. Let's look at some catalyst examples that are coming up that may dictate where stocks will be going for the rest of the year.
Wall Street To Fed: Promise Us You Don't Know What You're Doing
“That’s a risk that we live with every day and we’re going to live with that every day for many, many years to come, so I think you can’t be on pins and needles and say I’m not going to pursue the right policy for the U.S. because something bad might happen in that situation.”…
It’s Cool To Be A Bear. Do You Want To Be Cool?
Earlier today, I asked the following question: “Where’s The Bull Market?” My point was simple. Central banks have indeed driven asset prices into the stratosphere and a kind of needlessly contrarian collective gamble has driven oil back near $50 even as the fundamental picture is so bad that crude is being stored offshore in tankers…
Where’s The Bull Market?
If someone asked me to summarize my general outlook on markets - whether equities, fixed income, FX, or otherwise - in one sentence I’d say this: we are investing and trading in exceptionally uncertain times. Yes, that’s a cliche. But I think it’s an appropriate one in this case. To be sure, being bearish and…
King Dollar Has “Unfinished Business”
This week was about one thing, and one thing only: uber hawkishness from the Fed. To be sure, “uber hawkishness” means something entirely different today than it meant in the Volcker years. Now, you’re a hawk if you think the Fed Funds should be 75 bps. Still, it’s all relative. We live in a world…
Calls For “Helicopter Money” Grow As G7 Meeting Betrays Global Growth Jitters
Finance chiefs from the G7 economies are meeting in Japan this weekend ahead of next week’s G7 summit. At the top of the agenda: sluggish global growth. As anyone who follows global macro is acutely aware, Japan is in many ways the poster child for subdued economic activity. Last year, the country received the rather…