Calls For “Helicopter Money” Grow As G7 Meeting Betrays Global Growth Jitters
Finance chiefs from the G7 economies are meeting in Japan this weekend ahead of next week’s G7 summit. At the top of the agenda: sluggish global growth. As anyone who follows global macro is acutely aware, Japan is in many ways the poster child for subdued economic activity. Last year, the country received the rather…
Here’s What To Watch Ahead Of The All Important June Fed Decision
Well, here we go again. Both crude and stocks got off to a rocky start on Thursday as the Dow plunged triple digits and oil fell more than 2.5%. The culprit: why, the Fed of course. This week has reinforced the market themes that have played out for most of this year. On Monday we…
Fed Stuns Market With Hawkish Meeting Minutes, June “Live” After All
Surprise, surprise. Minutes from the Fed’s April meeting are out and the message is overwhelmingly hawkish. June is “live” after all. Equity markets immediately dipped into the red although after yesterday’s commentary from Williams and Lockhart, investors probably should have expected this. In hindsight, it looks like the San Francisco and Atlanta Fed chiefs were…
Stocks Swoon As Good News Is Still Bad News
It was just yesterday when Richmond Fed chief and consummate hawk Jeffrey Lacker told The Washington Post that in his view, the FOMC needs to “catch up” after falling behind the curve (no bond market pun intended) on policy normalization. Whatever impetus there was for a March hike promptly disappeared after stocks got off to…
Lower For Longer: Street Bets On Treasury Rally As Top Fed Official Warns On Policy
"I think markets may be extrapolating from our recent behavior and thinking all we do is delay.” That’s from Jeffrey Lacker and it’s entirely accurate. Lacker has been a vocal critic of the FOMC’s easy money policies for years and on Monday, The Washington Post published an exclusive interview with the Richmond Fed chief. Back…
Which Came First, The Fed, China, Or Oil?
Last September, Janet Yellen adopted the now famous “dovish relent.” A little over three weeks earlier, China “shocked” the market with a “surprise” devaluation of the yuan. To be sure, no one should have been taken off guard. China is an export driven economy with a currency tethered to the dollar. As the dollar moved…
Where is the Implied Volatility Risk
Where is the Implied Volatility Risk Where does the market see the higher implied volatility risk? It's surprising to see that despite earnings announcements next week and a FOMC meeting that the SPX implied volatility remains low. You look at other markets like the XLF, the ETF of the financials and QQQ, the Nasdaq 100…
Fed Watchers
Fed Watchers Fed watchers closely listened to Yellen's speech today. The speech was a lot more dovish than investors anticipated and that sparked another break out to the upside. Some Fed watchers are issuing caution. What does Yellen know about the economy that she has turned so dovish in the last few months? Will Friday's…
Stock and Bond Market Correlation
Stock and Bond Market Correlation The stock and bond market correlation will dictate what happens next. If the bond market explode higher we can see a sell off in the stock market. However, if the bond market breaks down further you could see a bigger move higher in the stock market. Although I remain bearish…
Implied Volatility Expected Move
Implied Volatility Expected Move Every week we need to look at the implied volatility and expected move for the week. Comparing the implied volatility and expected move to the previous week will tell us if there is more risk in the market. For next week the oil production report is coming out and the FOMC…