Which Came First, The Fed, China, Or Oil?
Last September, Janet Yellen adopted the now famous “dovish relent.” A little over three weeks earlier, China “shocked” the market with a “surprise” devaluation of the yuan. To be sure, no one should have been taken off guard. China is an export driven economy with a currency tethered to the dollar. As the dollar moved…
“Crude” Reality: This Market Is Driven By Oil
Don’t kid yourself. It doesn’t matter who you are or what you’re trading, it’s all about oil these days. If you don’t buy that, then have a look at the carnage that unfolded in January. Sure, some of it was attributable to the hangover from the first Fed hike in nearly a decade and the…
Quantitative Easing Stock Market
Quantitative Easing Stock Market When the Fed was using quantitative easing to drive the stock market higher we saw much more violent moves to the upside then downside. This is not typical for a market. Tomorrow's unemployment numbers may give us a clue as to which direction the Fed will go.
Intraday Trading
Intraday Trading When the market makes no sense it's time for some intraday trading. Today was a day all my intraday trading was "gold, Jerry, gold!" No, I wasn't trading gold, but everything else. I caught nearly a full point move in ZB bonds futures. Got some great action oil futures. I was intraday trading…
Bull Flag Pattern
Bull Flag Pattern A bull flag pattern is setting up in the SPX. What does today mean for the market trend? Bulls will need to see one big green candle to tell them this is the start of the next move higher. A move that could take us to new highs. Bears will be looking…
Support and Resistance Trading
Support and Resistance Trading Here are the support and resistance trading levels I'm looking for to be tested over the next few weeks in the major indexes, gold futures, and crude oil futures. What happens at these key levels will tell us what the market wants to do for the rest of the year. Either…
Oil Leads Market Higher
Oil Leads Market Higher Oil leads the market higher today after the oil report comes out. The market reversal blew through a key level in the S&P at 1911. The next level to watch is 1934. If the S&P can break through that then I would expect 2000 to be in play. Keep this in…
Stock Market Rally
Stock Market Rally The stock market rally in the last two days has been the most intense we have seen in a while. This is what a strong short covering rally looks like. Oil's low was at $26 on Thursday while the S&P was making a new 52 week low. Since then oil has rallied…
Oil Futures ETF
Oil Futures ETF A wild roller coaster in the markets that ended massively unchanged. Where is the bounce everyone is looking for? Maybe it's not happening because everyone is looking for it. 1900 is a big number though. I know many of you are waiting for that bounce to get out of positions. If we…